196
FXHW01 KWNH 010833
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
333 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
VALID 00Z MON 02 FEB 2026 - 00Z MON 09 FEB 2026
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT
TRANSITION AS THE CURRENT STAGNANT, LIGHT-WIND REGIME GIVES WAY TO
A MORE PROGRESSIVE WINTER PATTERN. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL
DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD...MORE OF A MODERATE SYSTEM EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND A POTENTIALLY MORE POTENT 'KONA' STYLE SYSTEM BY NEXT
WEEKEND.
IN TERMS OF THE MODELS, THE GLOBALS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD ACCORD
WITH RESPECT TO THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFS EMERGE DURING MID-TO-
LATE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE TYPICAL WINTER VARIABILITY AND TENDENCY
FOR THE MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DEPTH OF SUBTROPICAL TROUGHS,
A MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE BLEND, LEANING TOWARD THE ECENS AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES, WOULD BE PREFERRED.
FORECAST DETAILS: IN THE SHORT TERM, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS MODEST
AT BEST AS THE FRONT REACHES THE WESTERN ISLANDS LATE MONDAY-
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. BY LATE TUESDAY,
THE FRONT SLOWS CONSIDERABLY UPON REACHING THE BIG ISLAND,
WEAKENING AND STALLING THEREAFTER.
DURING MIDWEEK (WED INTO THU), A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS, BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND, WHERE MOISTURE ALONG THE DECAYING FRONT
WILL LINGER AND ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUD COVER AND PERIODIC SHOWERS.
BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A MORE
ROBUST FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEEPENING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL DRAW THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ISLANDS. IF THE
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD, THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD, HEAVIER RAINFALL, AND STRONG KONA WINDS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS (ABOVE 10KFT).
HURLEY
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