269
FXHW01 KWNH 050801
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
VALID 00Z FRI 06 FEB 2026 - 00Z FRI 13 FEB 2026
...POTENT WINTER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS...
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A STARK SHIFT EXPECTED IN THE EVOLVING
PATTERN. WEAK FLOW WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AM BEFORE THE UPPER
PATTERN BEGINS A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION REGIME WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING TOWARDS THE ISLANDS THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ISLANDS LATE FRI INTO SAT. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND THE STRONG HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTH WILL
LEAD TO STRONG, POTENTIALLY GALE- FORCE TRADE WINDS. AS NOTED THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
KONA- LIKE CONDITIONS WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE, PWATS INCREASING
TO AOA 1.75 INCHES WITH UPWARDS OF 2" TOWARDS THE BIG ISLAND
SAT/SUN. THIS WILL ENACT MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL BEFORE STRONG EASTERLY TRADES
STABILIZE THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNSETTLED FOR THE WINDWARD SIDE
OF THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADES WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE STILL PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
ISLANDS THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN TROUGH PINCHING
OFF AND SHOWING SIGNS OF CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS KEEN ON MAINTAINING AT LEAST ELEVATED PWAT
ANOMALIES THROUGH MONDAY AS A RESULT BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN TAKES SHAPE TUE/WED, DRYING OUT THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES FURTHER. SPECIFIC DETAILS
ARE STILL MURKY ON LONGEVITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENT
CUTOFF, BUT THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM BOTH THE
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES ON THE SETUP. PATTERN WILL BE
ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND REGARDLESS WITH CONFIDENCE ON A WET
48-72 HR PERIOD BEGINNING LATE-FRIDAY.
HURLEY/KLEEBAUER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page