087
FXHW01 KWNH 060803
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
VALID 00Z SAT 07 FEB 2026 - 00Z SAT 14 FEB 2026
...POTENT WINTER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS...
A RATHER QUIET PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD
BECOME MORE UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THE
COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW DRAWING AN AIRMASS
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND THE
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASING RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
OTHER COMPONENT TO THIS WILL BE POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE TRADE
WINDS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE ISLANDS BEFORE GETTING
SHUNTED WESTWARDS. AS THAT HAPPENS...THERE SHOULD BE DECREASING
CHANCES OF RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE 06/00Z ECMWF KEEPS LOW PRESSURE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE WESTERN ISLANDS TO KEEP RISK OF SHOWERS LINGERING WHILE THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WOULD SUPPORT DRIER
TRADE WINDS IN THE WEST.
BANN
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