269
FXUS02 KWNH 070759
PREEPD
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 10 2026 - 12Z SAT FEB 14 2026
..OVERVIEW
AN INITIAL UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AS THE PERIOD BEGINS
TUESDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
ABSORBED BY THE LARGER SCALE FLOW BY AROUND MID-WEEK. THIS SHOULD
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. TO OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THIS, ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO DIVE
DOWN THE WEST COAST WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST
LATE WEEK ALLOWING FOR RENEWED MOISTURE AND EXPANSION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN STATES.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS FORECAST TO BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT WITH
THE INITIAL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD,
WEAKENS, AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DETAILS WHICH IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL. THE NBM AND A MULTI- MODEL BLEND
SERVED AS A GOOD BASIS FOR THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD.
THE GREATEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE TIMING
OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT DIVES DOWN THE WEST COAST AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFTS INLAND. OVERALL, COMPARED TO A DAY AGO, THERE DOES CONTINUE
TO BE A SLIGHTLY FASTER TREND, BUT STILL A LOT OF RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY WITH INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE. THE 12Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF YESTERDAY TRENDED WAY FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS, BUT THE NEW
00Z RUN IS SLOWER. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY WITH
INTERACTIONS/PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS WELL. AND
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE WPC FORECAST LEANED MORE
HEAVILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD,
WITH OPERATIONAL INPUTS FROM THE GFS AND CMC.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD COULD SPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. FARTHER
SOUTH, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS TEXAS EARLY WEEK.
AS ITS SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE GETS ABSORBED AND A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, THIS SHOULD FOCUS GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THAT VICINITY BY TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY REACHING
THE EAST MIDWEEK. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH DETAILS
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
OUT WEST, A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING
DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO
CALIFORNIA, INCLUDING SIERRA NEVADA SNOW. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. AS
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BREAKS OFF FROM THIS TROUGH AND POTENTIAL
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST, THIS MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. BUT THE TIMING,
COVERAGE, AND INTENSITY OF THIS PRECIPITATION REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. ANOTHER TROUGH TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY FARTHER INLAND LATE IN THE WEEK.
A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. ON TUESDAY WILL BRING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDWEST. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THO WILL SPREAD ACROSS
ALL OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO PARTS OF THE EAST, FOLLOWING A
VERY COLD PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. FOR THIS REGION, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. COVERAGE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MAY WANE SOME, WITH MUCH OF
THE EAST AND WEST NEAR OR WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL BY NEXT
WEEKEND.
SANTORELLI
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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