029
FXUS02 KWNH 080801
PREEPD
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
VALID 12Z WED FEB 11 2026 - 12Z SUN FEB 15 2026
..OVERVIEW
TROUGHING DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST AS THE PERIOD BEGINS
WEDNESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY SEND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING AN EXPANDING AREA OF
PRECIPITATION, POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY, TO THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL U.S. BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NATION HELPING TO EVENTUALLY SPREAD
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EAST WITH VERY UNCERTAIN WINTRY IMPACTS
POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH SIDE. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL MOVE FROM
THE NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD, WITH A SECOND
TROUGH/UPPER LOW DROPPING AMPLIFYING AND DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE GREATEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE WEST
COAST TROUGHING BY MID TO LATE WEEK AND HOW/WHEN THAT ENERGY MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES AND THE DEGREE OF PHASING
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL, CLUSTERING WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS IMPROVING AND THERE IS A CLEAR TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEPARATED STREAMS AND SLOWER PROGRESSION EASTWARD. THE MAIN OUTLIER
TONIGHT (INCLUDING ITS NEW 00Z RUN) IS THE GFS WHICH MAINTAINS A
PHASED TROUGH AND FASTER SPEED. THE ECMWF, UKMET, AND CMC ARE ALL
SLOWER AND LESS PHASED AND THIS IS PREFERRED GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT
THE AI GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WITH SHOWING THIS EVOLUTION AS WELL.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE LARGER SCALE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM, THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS
ESPECIALLY THE RESULTING SURFACE FEATURES AND SENSIBLE WEATHER.
ELSEWHERE, NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC SHOW VARIABILITY IN TIMING, BUT WITHOUT
ANY NOTABLE OUTLIERS AND ALSO DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. ANOTHER TROUGH/UPPER LOW LOOKS TO DROP DOWN
THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND THE FIRST ONE POTENTIALLY
SETTING UP A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH AN INITIAL AND WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. TO THE NORTH, SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS CONTINUING BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST AND MODEST SNOWS IN THE SIERRA. AS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND THOUGH, PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BLOSSOM AND
QUICKLY EXPAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
EAST. DETAILS REGARDING HOW THE TROUGH/LOW EVOLVES ARE STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND THESE DIFFERENCES WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. SO WHILE HEAVY RAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND WINTRY PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ARE ALL
PROBABLE ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO BREAK DOWN THE SMALLER SCALE
DETAILS.
THE NEXT TROUGH OFF THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR
PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND INTO THE SIERRA.
HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD, BUT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
BOTH IN THE WEST AND THE EAST.
SANTORELLI
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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