202
FXHW01 KWNH 090948
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
448 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
VALID 00Z TUE 10 FEB 2026 - 00Z TUE 17 FEB 2026
...FLOODING CONCERN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH WINDS
ABATING TUESDAY BEFORE WHAT MAY PROVE TO BE A BRIEF RESPITE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS...WITH SOME VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT. CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING IS
GREATEST IN REGIONS OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCED LIFT AND IN ANY
URBANIZED AREAS. THE THREAT OF FLOODING DIMINISHES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT SOME SHOWERS LINGER INTO MID-WEEK AS A
WESTWARD MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE EVENTUALLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE
ISLAND AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF
THE STATE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT.
DRIER AIR SHOULD ADVECT FROM EAST TO WEST MID-WEEK GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE THAT
TRACKS WESTWARD WILL STALL AND EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT COMING OFF
OF JAPAN.
THE 09/00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
IDEA OF DRY ADVECTION INTO MID-WEEK. AT THAT POINT...THE ECMWF
TAKES ON A STRONGER/MORE COMPLEX SOLUTION ACROSS THE PACIFIC
WHICH RESULTS IN A INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE BY 14/00Z WHILE THE GFS WAS SLOWER AND BROUGHT RENEWED
CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY TO THE WESTERN-MOST ISLANDS. AM MORE
INCLINED TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION BASED ON THE SUPPORT FROM THE
ENSEMBLES.
BANN
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