674
FXHW01 KWNH 120722
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
VALID 00Z FRI 13 FEB 2026 - 00Z FRI 20 FEB 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
COUPLE UPPER LEVEL LOWS IMPACT HAWAI'I TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MID-
LEVEL RIDGES, KEEPING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AVERAGE/NEAR
1.5". FROM SATURDAY ONWARD, RIDGING BRIDGES ACROSS THE STATE. ON
MONDAY, A MODEST MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE NORTHEAST COULD CAUSE AN
UPTICK IN UPSLOPE SHOWERS; PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD RISE
BACK TO 1.5" BRIEFLY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY
IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A BROAD SURFACE LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE ARCHIPELAGO. WINDS SHOULD VEER WITH TIME EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA EXERTS MORE INFLUENCE
FROM THE NORTH...WHICH STARTS TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY, WHEN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT TOWARDS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. NO
MATTER WHICH SOLUTION COMES TO PASS, ITS ACCOMPANYING FRONT
APPEARS TO HOLD OFF THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. THE RESULTING LATITUDE
OF THE CLOSED LOW NEAR 170W WILL HAVE BEARING ON HOW WET IT
BECOMES ACROSS THE WESTERN MAIN ISLANDS LATE NEXT WEEK. AT THE
MOMENT, THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TOO FAR NORTH, BUT THE 00Z
CANADIAN/GFS COULD BE TOO FAR SOUTH AS WELL. THE MORE SOUTHERLY
GUIDANCE WOULD BE MORE OF A PROBLEM FROM A HEAVY RAIN
PERSPECTIVE...BEARS WATCHING.
ROTH
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