994
FXHW01 KWNH 200713
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
213 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
VALID 00Z SAT 21 FEB 2026 - 00Z SAT 28 FEB 2026
A FRONT NEAR THE ISLANDS WILL MAKE 2 SEPARATE PASSES ACROSS THE
CHAIN THROUGH THE WEEK, KEEPING CONDITIONS UNSETTLED. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE CHAIN AND DISSIPATES, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS ALL OF THE ISLANDS WILL USHER IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.
A FRONT WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD 00Z SATURDAY LOCATED LARGELY WEST OF
THE ISLANDS, HOWEVER, IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING, EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CHAIN. THE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS FIRST PASS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
ON SATURDAY, MAKING FOR VERY WET CONDITIONS ON ALL SIDES OF THE
ISLANDS AS THE FRONT ITSELF LIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CHAIN. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
IMPACT THE ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BOTH BEGIN WEAKENING, BUT ALSO
BEGIN TO PRESS SOUTH BACK TOWARDS THE ISLANDS. STEADIER RAINS WILL
IMPACT KAUAI AND OAHU ON MONDAY, IMPACT ALL THE ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY, AND PRIMARILY IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH
WITH SOME LINGERING RAINS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE. AS THE
FRONT TRIES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, IT WILL DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER WEATHER FOR THE
ENTIRE STATE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
MOST OF THE MAJOR MODELS (GFS, EC, CMC) LARGELY AGREE ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS HAWAII WITH
MINIMAL DISAGREEMENT, LEADING TOWARDS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST.
WEGMAN
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