974
FXHW01 KWNH 210917
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
417 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
VALID 00Z SUN 22 FEB 2026 - 00Z SUN 01 MAR 2026
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED DISAGREEMENT IN THE MAJOR GUIDANCE MADE
THIS FORECAST LESS CERTAIN AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE GFS
APPEARS THE MOST CONSISTENT, KEEPING THE SCENARIO DESCRIBED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WHERE A FRONT NEAR THE ISLANDS NOW RETREATS
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FOR A DAY OR 2, THEN RETURNS SOUTH DOWN THE
CHAIN, DISSIPATING BY THE TIME IT GETS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND,
FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER.
MEANWHILE, THE EC STALLS OUT THE FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE ISLANDS,
WITH A LOW DEVELOPING THE FRONT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH DOWN
THE CHAIN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FAR MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
ALL OF THE ISLANDS SINCE THE FRONT NEVER REALLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THEM. ONCE THE FRONT DISSIPATES, A PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER
FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BEFORE A MUCH STRONGER LOW,
DOWN INTO THE 990S, SWINGS ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM
WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE FRONT STALLING NEAR
THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE DIFFERENCES WOULD MAKE FOR
VERY DIFFERENT FORECASTS, ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
NOTING ITS CONSISTENCY, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STICKS WITH THE GFS
MOST CLOSELY TO REMAIN AS UNCHANGING AS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NEAR-TERM.
WEGMAN
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