514
FXHW01 KWNH 240743
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
VALID 00Z WED 25 FEB 2026 - 00Z WED 04 MAR 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED
BY AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW FEATURE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE, WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, A FLAT SHORTWAVE
RIDGE PREVAILS, WHILE A ROBUST SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC NOSES SOUTHWARD BEHIND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/SHEARLINE.
THIS SETUP WILL MAINTAIN A LOW-LEVEL EAST-TO-NORTHEAST TRADE WIND
FLOW, DIRECTING ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS PRIMARILY
TOWARD WINDWARD SLOPES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED, STRONG NORTHERLY SWELL
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DRIVE ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ALONG WINDWARD
COASTLINES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
ISLAND CHAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE DEEP TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A GENERALLY DRY REGIME PERSISTING INTO
THE WEEKEND. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD
LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES SLIGHTLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COLLECTIVELY
TRENDED SLOWER WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE ISLANDS (NOTABLY KAUAI) BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ITS DELAYED ARRIVAL SUGGESTS A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. AS THE TROUGH NEARS, INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND A MODEST SURGE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY BRING AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
DISTRIBUTION WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDWARD SHOWERS.
ORRISON
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