759
FXHW01 KWNH 280825
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
325 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
VALID 00Z SUN 01 MAR 2026 - 00Z SUN 08 MAR 2026
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK, ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
CORRESPONDING SURFACE FRONT POSITIONED WEST OF THE ISLANDS. AS
THIS WAVE LIFTS OUT, THE TRAILING BOUNDARY AND ITS ASSOCIATED
BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARE FORECAST TO EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE, WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DOMINATE
SENSIBLE WEATHER.
BY MONDAY, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE, ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS WAVE WILL
LIKELY LINGER AND WEAKEN OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TRANSITION BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST, SUPPORTING A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE RETURN OF AMPLIFYING TRADE WINDS. THESE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK, FOCUSING LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS PRIMARILY ALONG
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WHILE KEEPING LEEWARD AREAS MOSTLY DRY
UNDER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING TOWARD THE EASTERN ISLANDS AS IT MOVES
AROUND THE EAST AND THEN SOUTH SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. WHILE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE,
THE SURFACE REFLECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS LIMITED, WITH EASTERLY
TRADES LIKELY TO PREVAIL.
PEREIRA
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