243
FXHW01 KWNH 040910
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
410 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
VALID 00Z THU 05 MAR 2026 - 00Z THU 12 MAR 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH A STRONG UPPER
HIGH AND SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES DEVELOPING WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL INITIALLY ALLOW AN
UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL WELL WEST
OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. SURFACE WINDS, ORIGINALLY
EASTERLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD, ARE EXPECTED TO VEER MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAIN THIS FLOW REGIME INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE DEEPENING SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE, BUT THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHING THE WESTERN
ISLANDS NEXT WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
VEER FURTHER SOUTH, TAPPING INTO DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
DRAWING IT ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THE PRIMARY HIGH CENTER OVER THIS WEEKEND AND LINGER EAST OF THE
STATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS FEATURE MAY SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND, SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACTS OVER LAND CURRENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL.
PEREIRA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page