162
FXHW01 KWNH 050749
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
VALID 00Z FRI 06 MAR 2026 - 00Z FRI 13 MAR 2026
RELATIVELY BENIGN PERIOD TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SURFACE HIGH REMAINING ANCHORED NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. BREEZY
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE, WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STALLING WEST OF THE STATE AS ENCOUNTERS
THE DEEP DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
FAVOR SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. OVERALL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE STAYS WEST OF THE STATE.
NEXT WEEK: AS THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST, EXPECT LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AND
STRENGTHEN BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN DEEP-LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE, AS PWS CLIMB
TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS BY TUE, AND THE EASTERN
ISLANDS BY WED. THUS EXPECT A A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AS THE AXIS OF MOST
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH PW
AIRMASS.
HURLEY
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