052
AWUS01 KWNH 052344
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-060542-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0034
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
642 PM EST THU MAR 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TX & WESTERN OK
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 052342Z - 060542Z
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
WITH TIME FROM NORTHWEST TX ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK. HOURLY
AMOUNTS TO 2.5" WITH LOCAL TOTALS TO 4" ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE WEST, WITH A
SUBTLE PRECEDING SHORTWAVE JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST TX, SOUTHEAST NM, AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE INCOMING FEATURES IS ATTEMPTING TO BREAK A
WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH HAS LED TO ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE ~1.25", ML CAPE IS 1500-2500 J/KG, AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS
35-45 KTS.
WITH TIME, THE CAP BREAKS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND POLEWARD OF WHERE AN AREA OF
850 HPA CONFLUENCE INTERSECTS A WARM FRONT, WITH THE ZONE OF
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE SLOWLY VEERING WITH TIME. THE 12Z ARW AND
18Z HI-RES NAM ARE AMONGST THE WETTEST GUIDANCE, SHOWING A 3-4"
MAXIMUM SOMEWHERE NEAR THE BORDER OF NORTHWEST TX AND SOUTHWEST
OK. GIVEN THE INGREDIENTS ABOVE, HOURLY AMOUNTS TO 2.5" WITH
LOCAL TOTALS TO 4" ARE POSSIBLE, LENDING SOME CREDENCE TO THEIR
SOLUTIONS. CELL TRAINING, CELL MERGERS BETWEEN MORE AND LESS
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, AND MESOCYCLONE FORMATION ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE DRIVERS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE AMOUNTS
WOULD EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ON AN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED BASIS, AND BE MORE PROBLEMATIC IN URBAN AREAS WITHIN THE
REGION. USED THE 12Z REFS & 18Z HREF HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL TO HELP
DEFINE THE MPD OUTLINE.
ROTH
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...LUB...OUN...
ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 37019878 36389723 34339850 33749996 34510128
35760070
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