764
AWUS01 KWNH 062212
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-070410-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0036
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
510 PM EST FRI MAR 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TX INTO EASTERN OK, WESTERN AR, &
CENTRAL MO
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 062210Z - 070410Z
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BROADENING IN COVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK. HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO 2.5" WITH LOCAL
TOTALS TO 4" ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN NUMBER
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND SOUTHWEST MO AS MID-LEVEL CAPPING ERODES.
THE OK ACTIVITY IN PARTICULAR IS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF A
SURFACE TROUGH AND AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT. ML CAPE IS 1000-2000
J/KG, EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS 40-55 KTS, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE ~1.4". WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMPLIES A WEAK DISTURBANCE
IS OVER THE CONVECTION AT THE PRESENT TIME, WITH OTHER SHORTWAVES
ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING ON BOTH SIDES OF A COOL WEDGE OF AIR ACROSS CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST OK LEFT BEHIND BY MORNING STRATUS/RAINFALL. THE
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH THE BREADTH OF THE COVERAGE
AND THE LOCATION, WITH THE 12Z REFS A FEW HOURS TOO DELAYED AND
THE 18Z HREF 1-2 HOURS DELAYED IN THIS AREA.
THE GFS-BASED GALVEZ-DAVISON INDEX IMPLIES A CONVECTIVE UPTICK IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MOST CENTERED IN NORTHEAST TX, EASTERN OK,
AND NORTHWEST AR THROUGH 00Z BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES AT 03Z OR SO,
WHICH ALSO MATCHES THE TIMING OF THE HREF/REFS CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION. CONSIDERING THE PARAMETERS ABOVE, MESOCYCLONES ARE
EXPECTED. HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 2.5" SHOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
MESOCYCLONES AND WHERE CONVECTION OF DIFFERENT LEVELS OF
ORGANIZATION HAPHAZARDLY MERGES, WITH LOCAL TOTALS UP TO 4"
POSSIBLE. CELL TRAINING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE DEEP LAYER FLOW
IS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS FLOW
VEERS SLIGHTLY WITH TIME WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT EASTWARD
SHIFT AND WOULD THEORETICALLY LIMIT EVEN HIGHER TOTALS. THE 18Z
HI-RES NAM AND 12Z ARW ARE ON OPPOSING SIDES OF THE GUIDANCE
SPREAD, BUT AT THE MOMENT, THE 18Z NAM APPEARS TO BE DOING
SOMEWHAT BETTER. THE GUIDANCE ALL APPEARS TOO WET IN NORTHEAST TX
AT THE PRESENT TIME, BUT GIVEN THE INCOMING SHORTWAVES FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST, ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA
AT SOME POINT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.
ROTH
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EAX...FWD...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...
SJT...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 39029383 38769202 36599238 33899435 32109697
31739900 33089868 34639827 35959795 36139782
37599547
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