830
AWUS01 KWNH 062230
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-070128-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0037
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
529 PM EST FRI MAR 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST IL, NORTHWEST IN, AND SOUTHWEST LOWER
MI
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 062228Z - 070128Z
SUMMARY...A MESOSCALE WAVE IS ATTEMPTING TO HOLD UP CONVECTION
FROM IN AND NEAR CHICAGOLAND INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
HOURLY AMOUNTS TO 2" AND LOCAL TOTALS TO 4" ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS.
DISCUSSION...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL IL IS
BEGINNING TO HOLD UP CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST IL RATHER CLOSE TO
CHICAGO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1.3", ML CAPE IS
1000-1500 J/KG, AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS 35 KTS.
THE CONCERN IS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER A PORTION OF
CHICAGO'S URBAN AREA, WHICH INCLUDES FAR NORTHEAST IN. SOME OF
SOUTHWEST MI MAY SEE CELL TRAINING AS WELL. THIS SITUATION DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE HANDLED WELL BY RECENT MESOSCALE GUIDANCE. THE
PARAMETERS SUGGEST HOURLY AMOUNTS TO 2" WITH LOCAL TOTALS TO 4"
ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH WOULD BE A PROBLEM IN URBAN AREAS FROM A FLASH
FLOODING PERSPECTIVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
ROTH
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GRR...ILX...IWX...LOT...
ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...
LAT...LON 42598593 41578648 40758845 40648918 40878939
41018930 41548830 42178709
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