869
AWUS01 KWNH 062256
FFGMPD
ILZ000-070152-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0038
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
555 PM EST FRI MAR 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 062252Z - 070152Z
SUMMARY...A WEAK WAVE ACROSS WESTERN IL IS HOLDING UP CONVECTIVE
PROGRESSION ACROSS CENTRAL IL. HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO 2" WITH
LOCAL TOTALS TO 4" ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH WOULD BE A PROBLEM IN URBAN
AREAS.
DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE WAVE MOVING
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL IL, THE SYSTEM'S CONVECTIVE TAIL IS BEING HELD
UP BY A WEAK WAVE SEEN IN THE THERMAL FIELD ACROSS WESTERN IL.
HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS ARE UP TO 1.5" PER RADAR ESTIMATES. ML CAPE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG LIES TO ITS SOUTH, EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS ~35
KTS, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ~1.4".
IT APPEARS CELL TRAINING IN THIS REGION COULD LAST FOR 2-3 HOURS.
IN THIS TIME, HOURLY AMOUNTS TO 2" WITH LOCAL TOTALS TO 4" ARE
POSSIBLE, WHICH WOULD BE MOST PROBLEMATIC IN URBAN AREAS.
ROTH
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...
ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 40828877 40488805 39888912 39629031 40388936
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