501
AWUS01 KWNH 070055
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-070654-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0039
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
754 PM EST FRI MAR 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...IN AND NEAR IOWA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 070054Z - 070654Z
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF IOWA WHICH HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDELY
SCATTERED OCCURRENCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PARTIALLY SATURATED SOILS AND IN URBAN AREAS.
DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST IS
PUSHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SD AT THIS TIME.
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO BLOSSOM NEAR A
SURFACE LOW DUE TO THE DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE JUST OVER 1". MU CAPE OF 500-1500
J/KG LIES ACROSS IA ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-65 KTS.
MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER ACROSS IA WITH TIME, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ECLIPSING 1.25" IN SOME AREAS.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO KEEP CONVECTION
GOING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO
2" ARE POSSIBLE WHERE MESOCYCLONES FORM, CELL TRAINING OCCURS, AND
WHERE LESSER AND GREATER ORGANIZED CONVECTION MERGES. LOCAL
TOTALS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 3". THE FLOW NOTICEABLY VEERS AS A
FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL TOTALS.
HOWEVER, GIVEN RECENT SATURATION, HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS COULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO EXCEED THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES SEEN
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF IA. WIDELY SCATTERED FLASH FLOOD
OCCURRENCES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 07Z, BOTH OVER PARTIALLY
SATURATED SOILS AND WITHIN URBAN AREAS.
ROTH
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...FSD...MKX...MPX...OAX...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...
LAT...LON 43709310 43369042 41699019 40319259 40109486
40619596 42499611
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