952
AWUS01 KWNH 070430
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-071000-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0040
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1129 PM EST FRI MAR 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN OK, SOUTHEASTERN KS, NORTHWESTERN AR
INTO SOUTHWESTERN/CENTRAL MO
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 070428Z - 071000Z
SUMMARY...TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEASTERN OK INTO
CENTRAL MO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KS AND
NORTHWESTERN AR IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS.
HOURLY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED, BUT ISOLATED 2+ INCH
PER HOUR RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...AT 04Z, A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS OBSERVED ON AREA
RADAR IMAGERY FROM NORTHEASTERN OK INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
MO, WITH A HISTORY OF TRAINING AND PEAK MRMS-DERIVED HOURLY
RAINFALL JUST OVER 2 INCHES BETWEEN TULSA AND PRYOR, OK, JUST
SOUTH OF I-44. THIS LINE HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED FOR A FEW HOURS NOW
AND HAS RESULTED IN A REGION OF RAIN-COOLED AIR BEING OVERRUN BY A
40-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE SW TO NE ORIENTATION OF THE LINE,
MATCHING DEEPER LAYER STEERING FLOW HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF
TRAINING, BUT THE LINE OF STORMS HAS SHOWN SOME EASTWARD
TRANSLATION OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. FARTHER SOUTH, ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS INCREASED OVER SOUTHEASTERN OK, WITHIN
WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW, AND IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE IN NORTHEASTERN OK.
AREAS OF TRAINING ARE ONGOING FROM NORTHEASTERN OK INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MO, AND THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM.
WHILE OVERALL EASTWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED, THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR TRAINING STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTS THE LINE. MEANWHILE, 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
MLCAPE EXTENDED FROM THE MOKSAROK INTERSECTION INTO CENTRAL OK,
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE EXTENDING SSW FROM EASTERN KS INTO
WEST-CENTRAL OK. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWEEP
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 09Z, EVENTUALLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN OK. WHILE THIS
SECOND ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE, UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF RAIN WILL ADD ONTO LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS
FROM THE INITIAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. AT LEAST ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE POSSIBLE.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ICT...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 38429281 38409202 38259130 37739134 37089182
36399277 35569413 35209490 35179550 35409584
35779609 36279599 36849542 37479443 37879367
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