297
AWUS01 KWNH 070551
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-070920-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0041
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1250 AM EST SAT MAR 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...IA/IL/WI JUNCTION INTO SOUTHERN WI
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 070547Z - 070920Z
SUMMARY...TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM THE IA/IL/WI TRI-STATE
REGION INTO SOUTHERN WI THROUGH 09Z.
DISCUSSION...LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN WI SHOWED THE
PRESENCE OF AN MCV OR AT LEAST A NORTHERN BOOKEND VORTEX ABOUT 30
MILES NW OF MADISON, WI. THE MOTION OF THIS FEATURE WAS TOWARD THE
ENE AT A RAPID PACE OF 40-50 KT. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO
70 KT (70 KT @ KDVN AT 0504Z) WAS HELPING TO RAPIDLY TRANSPORT
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH WHERE IT INTERSECTED A
SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENDING LINE OF STORMS FROM NEAR THE MCV CENTER.
FORECAST MOTION OF THE MCV TAKES IT INTO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN
WITHIN THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF TRAINING
ALONG THE AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS FLANKING THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR DESPITE LIMITED
MUCAPE OF ~500 J/KG. WHILE RECENT HIRES MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE, SHORT TERM OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
EXTRAPOLATION INDICATE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING FROM THE
IA/IL/WI TRI-STATE REGION INTO SOUTHERN WI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN IN ABOUT AN HOUR THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. GIVEN 3-HR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES BELOW 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION,
MINOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS
OVERLAP WITH ANY URBAN LOCATIONS.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...MKX...
ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...
LAT...LON 43858844 43808755 42798771 42398875 42168975
42249059 42509082 42869048 43508957
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page