291
AWUS01 KWNH 070956
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-071530-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0042
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
455 AM EST SAT MAR 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN TX/SOUTHEASTERN OK INTO AR AND
SOUTHEASTERN MO
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 070955Z - 071530Z
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN TX, SOUTHEASTERN OK INTO AR AND SOUTHEASTERN MO
THROUGH 15Z. HOURLY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON
WITHIN CELL TRAINING, BUT ISOLATED 2+ INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM NORTHEASTERN TX INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL AR
OVER THE PAST HOUR, ENDING 0940Z. THE CONTINUED TRANSPORT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND PERHAPS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL CIN
DECREASES. MEANWHILE, A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED TO THE
WEST, ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT, ANALYZED FROM A GMJ TO
ADH TO DYS LINE AT 09Z. THE ENVIRONMENT FROM SOUTHEASTERN OK INTO
CENTRAL AR CONSISTED OF 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE, 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH
PWATS AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS, PER SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA.
AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CELLS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FROM FAR NORTHEASTERN TX INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL AR OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SOME DEGREE OF CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
BENEATH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS IT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD, REACHING SOUTHEASTERN OK
BY 12Z AND CENTRAL AR BY 15Z. AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FILLS IN
FROM SOUTHEASTERN OK INTO CENTRAL AR, CELL MERGERS AND TRAINING
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE. HOURLY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
COMMON WHERE CELL TRAINING OCCURS AND ISOLATED 2+ IN/HR RAINFALL
VALUES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. PEAK STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4
INCHES SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. BELOW AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION EXPERIENCED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION OVER THE PAST
FEW WEEKS MAY ACT TO MITIGATE FLASH FLOODING TO URBAN OVERLAP OR
OTHERWISE POORLY DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...SHV...
TSA...
ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 37099014 36168967 35189033 33709311 33439515
33819637 34829581 36089355 37029134
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