324
AWUS01 KWNH 071420
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-072000-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0043
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
919 AM EST SAT MAR 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TX...NORTHERN LA...SOUTHERN & EASTERN
AR...WESTERN TN...NORTHWEST MS...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 071420Z - 072000Z
SUMMARY...SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STREAKS OF 2-3" TOTALS IN
1-2 HOURS ALONG FAVORABLE CONFLUENCE AND TRAINING CONVECTIVE LINES
SUGGEST LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV SUITE DEPICTS A HIGHLY DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH AND EXITING STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING A BROAD ENTRANCE REGION
THROUGH THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY WHILE A MORE SUBTLE WAVE OVER THE
BIG COUNTRY OF TX HAS PROVIDED A SUBTLE SPLIT JET FEATURE
PROVIDING SOLID DOWNSTREAM DIVERGENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA OF
CONCERN STRETCHING FROM NE TX THROUGH THE DELTA REGION. A STREAM
OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXITING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE ALONG A
SURFACE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WAA REGIME ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
GOES-E VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH BEST BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW PROVIDING STRONG MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR KTKI/KGVT MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY.
SOLID 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXIST THROUGH EASTERN TX TO
MAINTAIN/FEED THESE CELLS AND WITH 35-40KTS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTERSECTING THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY ALLOW FOR
DOWNSTREAM CELLS DEVELOPING EASTWARD. DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SHORT-DURATION REPEAT/TRAINING. A SLIGHT REDUCTION
IN OVERALL MOISTURE MAY LIMIT OVERALL RATES, BUT OVER 1.5"/HR
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS/STREAKS OF 2-3" IN 1-2 HOURS
BEFORE PROPAGATION SOUTHWARD LIMITS OVERALL TOTALS. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FFG ACROSS E TX/N LA MAY FURTHER LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE BUT
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINING POSSIBLE.
FURTHER NORTHEAST, THE WINDOW APPEARS TO BE CLOSING FOR LONGER
DURATION, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT IS
STARTING TO MAKE A PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY; ONE,
CUTTING OFF THE OVERALL MOISTURE TOTALS ALONG THE 50+ LLJ STREAK
BUT TWO, REDUCING DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL, REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC AND GOES-E VISIBLE STILL SHOWS A FEW SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MOVING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRE-FRONTALLY ACROSS E AR
WITH SOME TCU ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL LA WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE WESTERN GULF MOISTURE STREAM IS OCCURRING.
RAP/HRRR ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE REMAINS ON THIS
AXIS BEFORE BECOMING CONFLUENT WITH THE SURGING CONVECTIVE LINE.
THE COMBINATION RAPIDLY INCREASES CONVECTIVE COOLING AS NOTED IN
CENTRAL AR OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO, SHOWS THE MERGER/COMBINATION
SUPPORTS AN HOUR OR TWO OF ENHANCED 1.5-2"/HR RATES AND LOCALIZED
STREAKS OF 2-3" IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS. THESE INTERSECTIONS ARE
FLEETING IN DURATION BUT NEWER ONES WILL BE EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM
INTO W TX/NW MS AND N LA AS THE OVERALL SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD AND
CONVECTIVE LINE HAS POSITIVE SOUTHEASTERLY PROPAGATION VECTORS.
ANY INTERSECTION WITH URBAN CENTERS WILL LIKELY PRESENT THE
GREATEST FLASH FLOODING RISK, BUT OVERALL SCATTERED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 36219006 36128862 35228840 34138878 33228950
32689032 32199196 31999355 31919515 31929641
32209683 32869673 33259606 33399536 34529244
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