837
AWUS01 KWNH 071944
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-080100-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0044
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 PM EST SAT MAR 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL MS...ADJ. PORTIONS OF SE AR
& E TX...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 071945Z - 080100Z
SUMMARY...PROGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE LINE LIKELY TO BE LIMITED IN
DURATION BUT WILL INTERSECT/MERGE WITH PRECURSORY SLOWER MOVING
CELLS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF RETURN MOISTURE AXIS. WIDELY
SCATTERED 2-3.5" IN 2-3 HOURS POSE LOW-END POSSIBLE INCIDENT OR
TWO OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH EVENING.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND GOES-E IMAGERY SUITE DEPICT
A FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE LINE WITH NUMEROUS CELLS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FORWARD FLANKS SLIDING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE DEEPER LAYER STEERING FLOW ALLOWING FOR SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER FOR NEAR AN HOUR BEFORE PRESSING
SOUTHEASTWARD/REDEVELOPING. SOLID MID TO UPPER 60S TDS AND NEAR
.8-.9" OF PW THROUGH THE LOWEST LAYER AND TOTALING NEAR 1.7"
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY; AND SOLID LAPSE RATES GIVEN 2000+ J/KG
OF MLCAPE SUPPORT FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION GIVEN
STRENGTH OF FLUX (ON 30KTS OF SOUTHERLY INFLOW). THIS HELPS TO
SUPPORT 1.5-1.75"/HR RATES AND SIMILAR TOTALS, BUT AGAIN, ALSO
SUPPORTS SOLID FORWARD PROPAGATION VECTORS TO LIMIT DURATION.
OVERALL FFG VALUES (2-2.5"/HR 3"/3HRS), ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY
RECENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE ECLIPSED BY THIS ALONE;
THOUGH INTENSITY FORECAST BY THE HRRR OF 1-1.25"/15 MINUTES WOULD
NOT LIKELY INFILTRATE THE HARDER UPPER SOIL COLUMN, GREATER
RAINFALL TOTALS STILL ARE NEEDED TO RESULT IN EVEN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING CONDITIONS.
CIRA LPW ALONG WITH VWP NOTES, STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
OFF THE WESTERN GULF INTO ALONG A SHARP WESTERN EDGE OF THE 850
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE US SOUTHEAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG THIS WESTERN GULF
MOISTURE STREAM. RAP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOWS A WEAKER BUT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. REMOTE SENSING SHOWS THIS CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN
SUCCESSFUL IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS E LA/W MS
WITH A SLOWER NORTHEAST CELL MOTION LIKELY TO INTERSECT WITH THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY. THESE WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE, LIKELY
BROADENING THE UPDRAFT, MOISTURE FLUX AND THEREFORE RATES IN THE
SHORT-TERM RESULT IN ENHANCED SPOTS OR STREAKS OF 2-3.5" TOTAL
RAINFALL IN 1-2 HOURS AS THEY PASS. THIS STILL REMAINS ON THE
LOWER END OF THE FFG, SO RESULTANT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE REMAIN
WIDELY SCATTERED AND LIKELY LOWER-END REMAINING POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA OF CONCERN THROUGH EVENING.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 33688954 33598878 33238852 32768843 32108876
31408948 31059057 30979114 30999241 31259380
31789434 32479385 32789329 33199171 33399093
33579029
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