918
FXHW01 KWNH 130842
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
442 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VALID 00Z SAT 14 MAR 2026 - 00Z SAT 21 MAR 2026
...POWERFUL KONA STORM TO BRING NUMEROUS IMPACTS ACROSS HAWAII
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THE HIGH-IMPACT AND LIFE-THREATENING KONA STORM PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS HAWAII THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS STORM REMAINS
CENTERED NEAR APPROXIMATELY 35N AND 165-170W. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR THIS STORM TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROF BECOMES MORE ELONGATED AND SHEARED IN A WEST
TO EAST DIRECTION. HOWEVER, THIS WILL NOT AFFECT THE PLACEMENT OF
AN AXIS OF VERY ANOMALOUS PW VALUES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW,
WITH VALUES 2 TO 4+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN, REMAINING
CENTERED ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY FOR THE DAY 1..0000 UTC FRI MAR 14- 0000
UTC SAT MAR 15 AND DAY 2...0000 UTC SAT MAR 15 - 0000 UTC SUN MAR
16 PERIOD WHEN THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD BE STRONGEST
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE KONA LOW. AFTER THIS, WITH THE EXPECTED
WEAKENING OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF, PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS ORGANIZED. HOWEVER, WITH THE AXIS OF ANOMALOUS PW VALUES
REMAINING ACROSS THE ISLANDS, HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE EACH
DAY.
WITH SOILS ALREADY BECOMING SATURATED, THE MULTI DAY THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING STATEWIDE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
ORAVEC
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