437
FXHW01 KWNH 150850
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
450 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VALID 00Z MON 16 MAR 2026 - 00Z MON 23 MAR 2026
...WEAKENING EXPECTED TO THE RECENT KONA STORM LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY THIS WEEK, BUT HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE ONGOING HIGH-IMPACT AND
LIFE- THREATENING KONA STORM PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE
THIS WEEKEND AS THE ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF BECOMES
MORE ELONGATED AND SHEARED IN A WEST TO EAST DIRECTION. HOWEVER,
THIS WILL NOT AFFECT THE PLACEMENT OF AN AXIS OF VERY ANOMALOUS PW
VALUES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW, WITH VALUES 2 TO 4+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN, REMAINING CENTERED ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THERE IS MODEL CONSENSUS THAT FOR THE DAY 1 AND DAY 2 PERIODS,
0000 UTC MON MAR 16 TO 0000 UTC TUE MAR 17 AND 0000 UTC TUE MAR 17
TO 0000 UTC WED MAR 18, THE AXIS OF THE GREATEST PW ANOMALIES
WILL BE CENTERED MORE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE FROM
MAUI TO THE BIG ISLAND. SUBSEQUENTLY, CONSENSUS IS FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAINS THESE DAYS ACROSS THESE ISLANDS, WITH LESS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS.
AFTER THIS, WITH THE WEAKENING TREND TO THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND, THE FORECAST MODEL PRECIP AXES
DIVERGE MORE, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE ANOMALOUS PW AXIS WILL EXPAND BACK
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT
GREAT FOR DETAILS OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP EACH DAY, IT IS HIGHER
FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS EXTENDING THROUGH THE WEEK GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ANOMALOUS PW AXIS.
WITH SOILS ALREADY SATURATED AND CREEKS/RIVERS HIGH FROM RECENT
HEAVY RAINS, THE MULTI DAY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL SUPPORT THE
CONTINUED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STATEWIDE INTO
ALL OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ORAVEC
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