014
FXHW01 KWNH 180818
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
418 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
VALID 00Z THU 19 MAR 2026 - 00Z THU 26 MAR 2026
...AN OVERALL WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS
HAWAII...
THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN OVERALL WET PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT WEEK ACROSS HAWAII. THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF THE ISLANDS ALONG
APPROXIMATELY 165-170W AND 25-30N. THIS AMPLIFYING TROF WILL
SUPPORT AN AXIS OF ANOMALOUS PW VALUES...2 TO 4+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN...REMAINING ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, SUPPORTING INCREASING CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,THE UPPER TROF TO THE WEST OF THE
ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST, WITH A RESULTANT EASTWARD PUSH TO
THE ANOMALOUS PW AXIS. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
LATEST SUITE OF MODELS ON THIS EASTWARD PUSH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
GREAT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING ISSUES AT THE DAY 6 AND 7 RANGE.
BETTER CONFIDENCE, OVERALL, THAT WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROF TO THE
WEST OF THE ISLANDS, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH THEN A POSSIBLE EASTWARD PUSH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
CONCENTRATING HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE.
WITH SOILS SATURATED AND CREEKS/RIVERS HIGH FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINS, THE INCREASING CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK, WILL SUPPORT THE RISK OF LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES STATEWIDE DURING THIS
PERIOD.
ORAVEC
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