548
AWUS01 KWNH 031949
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-040150-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0073
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 PM EDT FRI APR 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER GREAT LAKES & WESTERN PA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 031950Z - 040150Z
SUMMARY...PROGRESSIVE BUT POTENTIALLY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE RAINFALL RATES OVER 1.5"/HR. LOCALLY
SATURATED SOILS COULD BE PARTICULARLY AT-RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION...DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION HAS
DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE FROM CENTRAL IN ALL THE WAY TO WESTERN
PA WITH AS MUCH AS 500-1,000 J/KG OF MLCAPE HAVING BECOME
AVAILABLE IN THE PAST 3 HOURS PER RTMA. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING AS MUCH AS 1.5" PWS WILL BE AVAILABLE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AT-RISK REGION WHILE PWS RANGE BETWEEN 1.2-1.5" OVER
EASTERN OH AND WESTERN PA. ALL PWS REFERENCED ARE COMFORTABLY
ABOVE THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE. MEAN WINDS WITHIN THE
850-300MB LAYER ARE RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OH AND ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.
AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE FRONT STRENGTHENS AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE OH VALLEY ARE REACHED, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK WSW TO ENE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS TRACKING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WITH NO CHANGE IN
THE MEAN STORM MOTION WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND
EVEN BACK-BUILDING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOILS IN THE REGION HAVE
GROWN INCREASINGLY SATURATED, PARTICULARLY EASTERN OH AND WESTERN
PA WHERE MRMS SOIL MOISTURE VALUES ARE BETWEEN 50-75% SATURATED.
12Z HREF SHOWS LOW CHANCES (10-30%) FOR 3-HR QPF TOTALS SURPASSING
3-HR FFGS IN NORTHERN OH BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SIMILAR LOW CHANCE PROBABILITIES IN FAR WESTERN PA. EASTERN IN IS
FARTHER EAST OF THE BETTER PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE, BUT SOME RECENT
CAMS RUNS HAVE SHOWN SOME POTENTIAL FOR 1.5"/HR RAINFALL RATES IN
DEVELOPING CELLS.
THE PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF THESE CELLS SHOULD LIMIT STORM RESIDENCY
TIMES, BUT WITH REDEVELOPING STORMS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST, TRAINING OF STORMS CONTAINING UP TO 1.5"/HR RAINFALL RATES
ARE POSSIBLE. 1-HR FFGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RANGE BETWEEN
1.0-1.5" AS WELL, MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ARE
AT-RISK, INCLUDING MORE URBANIZED LOCATIONS.
MULLINAX
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...IND...IWX...PBZ...RLX...
ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 41877921 41557891 41047925 40688006 40088151
39928202 39508341 39318469 39408562 40318614
40828559 40998427 41158336 41368168 41728016
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page