923
AWUS01 KWNH 032102
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-040300-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0074
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
501 PM EDT FRI APR 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN OK & NORTHERN TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 032100Z - 040300Z
SUMMARY...STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FLARING UP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BACK-BUILD
THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2"/HR. INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING ARE LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR AND GOES EAST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN KS AND
NEAR THE DRYLINE FROM THE RED RIVER ON SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS NO
SHORTAGE OF INSTABILITY AS RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ANYWHERE FROM
2,000-3,000 J/KG OF MLCAPE PRESENT. PWS CURRENTLY ARE LESS THAN
1.5" WHERE STORMS ARE INITIATING. THAT WILL SOON CHANGE AS
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUSTAINS THE ONGOING 850MB THETA-E
ADVECTION. MEANWHILE, THE COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTH WILL SLOW DOWN
AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS INTERSECT THE BOUNDARY, ALLOWING FOR
A PROLONGED WINDOW OF LOW-LEVEL FORCED ASCENT INTO A HIGHLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. PWS WILL SOON TOP 1.5" AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS AND WARM CLOUD LAYERS GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS THE EVENING
APPROACHES.
EXCELLENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT (40-50 KTS EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR) AND INCREASINGLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS CONTAINING AS
MUCH AS 100-200 M2/S2 OF EFFECTIVE SRH WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AT
THE ONSET BEFORE CONGEALING INTO A MORE ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTER
OF STORMS THIS EVENING. WHERE MESOCYCLONES DEVELOP, RAINFALL RATES
CAN BE ENHANCED AND EXCEED 2"/HR IN SOME CASES. THE CONCERN FOR
LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS DUE TO THE SLOWING OF THE
COLD FRONT AND THE RECEDING DRY LINE AS IT BACKS UP TO THE WEST.
SEVERAL HOURS WORTH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH BENEFICIAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES CAN
GIVE RISE TO BACK-BUILDING THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK THROUGH THIS EVENING. 12Z HREF GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW LOW-TO-MODERATE CHANCES (20-50%) FOR STORMS THAT ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 6HR QPF > 6-HR FFGS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. THE
20Z RUN OF THE WOFS (15KM NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABAILITIES) ALSO SHOWED
SOME >50% PROBABILITIES FOR >2" OF RAINFALL JUST NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE OKC METRO AREA THROUGH 02Z.
SOILS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WELCOME THE RAIN GIVEN MUCH OF THE
REGION'S D1-D3 DROUGHT STATUS. HOWEVER, THESE KIND OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RATES OVER VERY DRY/HARD SOILS CAN STRUGGLE TO SOAK IN
RAINFALL RIGHT AWAY AND ACT MORE AS LIKE A HYDROPHOBIC SURFACE.
THIS CAN LEAD TO RAPID RISES IN WATER BOTH IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
AND NEAR BY CREEK BEDS. ANY METROPOLITAN AREAS WITH A GREATER
CONCENTRATION OF HYDROPHOBIC SURFACES ARE ALSO VULNERABLE. THE
COMBINATION OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2"/HR AND WHAT IS
APPEARING TO BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING
FAVORS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR FLASH FLOODING. IN CASES WHERE
BACK-BUILDING AND TRAINING OCCUR, LOCALLY CONSIDERABLE INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.
MULLINAX
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...OUN...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 36929643 36649567 35409609 33489996 33020080
32610173 32840212 33650126 34480022 35369909
36499793 36859739
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