903
AWUS01 KWNH 032249
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-040430-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0076
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
647 PM EDT FRI APR 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IA...SOUTHEAST MN
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 032245Z - 040430Z
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHEAST
MN THAT SAW RAINFALL RECENTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WITH SOILS
GROWING INCREASINGLY SATURATED, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST EAST
OF THE MO RIVER AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS
INTERSECTS THE 850MB FRONT ORIENTED FROM WESTERN IA ON NORTH AND
EAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MN. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR AS MUCH AS 1,000 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER CENTRAL
IA. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SPORTS >1.25" PWS, WHICH ARE ABOVE
THE 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE INTO CENTRAL IA.
SOILS WITHIN THE HIGHLIGHTED REGION WERE ALREADY COMING INTO TODAY
A LITTLE MORE SATURATED THANKS TO YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL. NASA
SPORT-LIS 0-40CM SOIL MOISTURE PERCENTILES IN NORTH-CENTRAL IA
WERE ABOVE 80% SATURATION COMING INTO TODAY. MRMS SHOWS 3-HR QPE
FROM JUST NORTH OF DES MOINES ON NORTH AND EAST HAVE RECEIVED AN
ADDITIONAL 0.5" OF RAINFALL (LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TOO). MOST
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES ARE LESS THAN 1"/HR, BUT AS THE LOW DEEPENS
AND WAA INCREASES, WARM CLOUD LAYERS WILL ALSO DEEPEN AND WARM
RAIN PROCESSES WILL MAKE FOR MORE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES THAT
COULD APPROACH 1"/HR. LATEST 1HR FFGS ARE AS LOW AS 1"/HR IN
CENTRAL IA. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
WHERE A BETTER SOURCE OF INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. LOCATIONS MOST
AT-RISK TO FLASH FLOODING ARE POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND SPOTS WHERE
SOILS ARE BEGINNING TO STRUGGLE SOAKING IN RECENT RAINFALL.
MULLINAX
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...
LAT...LON 43809169 43159133 42369175 41029340 40949450
41969505 42589467 43089354 43729249
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