188
AWUS01 KWNH 040131
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-040729-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0077
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
930 PM EDT FRI APR 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IN...NORTHERN OH
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 040129Z - 040729Z
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.5"/HR REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF A WARM
FRONT ARE ALSO FORMING ALONG A NARROW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH. STORMS IN NORTHERN OH HAVE PRODUCED OVER 2" OF RAINFALL IN
SOME SPOTS PER MRMS QPE AND ONE LSR SOUTHWEST OF CANTON REPORTING
2 FEET OF WATER OVER A ROAD. ROUNDS UPON ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FROM EASTERN IN AND NORTHERN OH TO AS FAR EAST
AS THE WV PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST PA THIS EVENING. RAP
MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AT LEAST 1,000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
AVAILABLE, EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 30 KTS, AND ANOMALOUS PWS
BETWEEN 1.25-1.5" AT THESE STORMS DISPOSAL.
1-HR FFGS HAVE DECREASED TO AS LOW AS 1" IN PARTS OF NORTHERN OH
WITH ALL AREAS EFFECTIVELY BELOW 1.5" THANKS TO THIS AFTERNOON'S
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 00Z HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850-300MB MEAN LAYER WINDS ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL
WINDS SUPPLYING RICH THETA-E INTO THE FRONT WILL CREATE A STEADY
DIET OF STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. 00Z HRRR 6-HR QPF
SHOWS AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OVER 3" POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND 08Z TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
CURRENT STATE OF ONGOING FLASH FLOODING IN THE AREA, AND MORE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO COME, ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.
LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE ANOTHER 1-2"
OF RAINFALL OCCURS IN AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY DEALING WITH FLASH
FLOODING. NOTE THAT FLOODED ROADWAYS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT FOR
MOTORISTS TO IDENTIFY WITH THE SUN HAVING NOW SET. MOTORISTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF THEY MUST BE ON THE ROADS TONIGHT.
MULLINAX
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...
ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 41218275 40998150 40778103 40268116 40118298
40358467 40628531 40898531 41188402
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