252
AWUS01 KWNH 040259
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-040857-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0078
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1058 PM EDT FRI APR 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 040257Z - 040857Z
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY, NORTH TEXAS, AND CENTRAL/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.
DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR DEPICTS AN EXPANDING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES NEAR
SHAWNEE, OK. THIS COMPLEX HAS RECENTLY PRODUCED 1-2 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER OKLAHOMA CITY METRO OVER THE PAST HOUR, WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH MRMS FLASH RESPONSES SUGGESTING LIKELY URBAN FLASH
FLOODING IN THE AREA. THE COMPLEX WAS MOVING EASTWARD AT AN
APPRECIABLE PACE (AROUND 30 KNOTS) TOWARD
LESS-SENSITIVE/LESS-URBAN GROUND CONDITIONS, WHICH MAY RESULT IN
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL BECOMING MORE ISOLATED WITH TIME. HOWEVER,
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WAS CONTRIBUTING
TO AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX, WITH
MERGERS LIKELY TO SUPPORT CONTINUED 1-2 INCH/HR RATES AT TIMES FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR. SOME TRAINING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THIS COMPLEX
COULD ALSO SPREAD FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL INTO THE ADA, OK VICINITY
OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AS WELL.
CONVECTION WAS ALSO DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ALONG A SOUTHWARD-MOVING
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE CHILDRESS, TX AREA. THE
SPEED OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT THE DEGREE OF REPEATING/TRAINING
CONVECTION HERE, AND RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER AREAS THAT HAVE
BEEN RELATIVELY DRY. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW
SPOTS WHERE REPEATING CAN BUMP HOURLY TOTALS ABOVE THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 36359490 35139451 33999530 32909765 33140060
33670158 34770059 35119820 35499746 36219682
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page