838
AWUS01 KWNH 041902
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-050101-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0080
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 PM EDT SAT APR 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX...NORTH-CENTRAL LA...SOUTHERN
AR...WESTERN MS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 041901Z - 050101Z
SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLATEX AND ARKLAMISS
REGIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AREAS WITH PERSISTENT TRAINING CELLS COULD GET 1
INCH/30 MINUTE RAINFALL RATES, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW
INSTANCES OF FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL DOPPLER RADARS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ARE INDICATING A STEADY INCREASE IN CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. MULTIPLE BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS OF
PRE-FRONTAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA, AND ALSO ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI. THESE STORMS ARE STARTING TO
CONVECTIVELY TRAIN, LEADING TO ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR, AND IN SOME INSTANCES AN INCH IN UNDER 30 MINUTES
WHERE CELL MERGERS HAPPEN. THIS WILL MOISTEN THE SOILS BEFORE THE
MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION APPROACHES WITH THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RECENT RUNS OF THE RRFS AND HRRR ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED QPF MAXIMA ON THE ORDER OF 2-4 INCHES THROUGH 00Z, WITH
MUCH OF THIS LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN A 2-3 HOUR TIME PERIOD FOR
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. ALTHOUGH RECENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION IS A MITIGATING FACTOR, THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES MAY
BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW INSTANCES OF FLOODING, WITH A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACROSS URBAN LOCATIONS.
HAMRICK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...LZK...MEG...
SHV...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 34009043 33878966 33038933 31229040 30609073
30419127 30769249 30769317 30659377 30399455
30019552 29779623 29599690 29809730 30049737
30439708 30819659 31309628 31709580 31949548
32179511 32539463 32809414 33029372 33239315
33349270 33429238 33569207 33669169 33859109
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