231
FXHW01 KWNH 140845
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
445 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
VALID 00Z WED 15 APR 2026 - 00Z WED 22 APR 2026
PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL BE FROM A COMBINATION OF ABOVE
AVERAGE PW ALONG THE WEAKENING SHEAR LINE EMANATING SOUTHWARD FROM
THE STRONG CLOSED LOW INITIALLY NEAR 38N 162W AND ADDITIONAL HIGH
PW TO THE EAST OF A NEW UPPER TROF FORMING WEST OF THE ISLAND
ALONG APPROX 170W LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE TRADES THAT HAVE BEEN DISRUPTED SIGNIFICANTLY LATELY WITH THIS
STALLED FRONT/SHEAR LINE, WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL BY
THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE NEAR 40-45N AND THE
STALLED FRONT/SHEAR LINE DISSIPATES. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, IT
APPEARS THE TRADES WILL AGAIN WEAKEN AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS PUSHES FARTHER EAST AND UPSTREAM TROFFING FORMING
INITIALLY ALONG 170W, BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD.
THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LESS ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MORE TYPICAL TRADE
PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS. BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THE NEW UPSTREAM TROF ALONG 170W WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR MORE
ENHANCED LARGER SCALE PRECIP AREAS FORMING WEST OF THE ISLANDS.
EVENTUALLY SOME OF THESE MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP AREAS MAY PUSH
EASTWARD IN THE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW TROF FORMING ALONG 170W IS PUSHED
EASTWARD BY UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS. THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD
HERE WITH QPF DETAILS. THE GFS IS THE MOST EMPHATIC ABOUT PUSHING
AN ORGANIZED AREA OF HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE ISLANDS MON-WED, WHILE
THE AIGFS DOES NOT FOLLOW. AT THE MOMENT, BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
INCREASED LARGE SCALE PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE UPSTREAM HEIGHT
FALLS APPROACHING THE STATE AND THE ABOVE AVERAGE PW IN PLACE.
ORAVEC
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