872
FXHW01 KWNH 170703
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
VALID 00Z SAT 18 APR 2026 - 00Z SAT 25 APR 2026
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHIFTING SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE SLIDES EASTWARD, ALLOWING
FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO TYPICAL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND ON SATURDAY. THERE IS GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW, THOUGH TIMING AND LATITUDINAL
PLACEMENT VARY SLIGHTLY. MOST SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH TO AVOID A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT, BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO VEER WINDS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A BLEND OF THE ECMWF
WITH BOTH THE ECENS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS IS PREFERRED.
AS THE FLOW VEERS MORE SE-S, DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE (HIGHER
PWATS) WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN ISLANDS
(KAUAI/OAHU).
DURING THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, A RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL DROP PWATS TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE APRIL AS THE
EAST-NORTHEAST TRADES RETURN. DURING THIS TIME EXPECT MORE
STABLE/SEASONABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE, WITH LIGHT
TRADE SHOWERS ACROSS FAVORED WINDWARD SLOPES.
HURLEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page