705
FXHW01 KWNH 220737
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
337 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
VALID 00Z THU 23 APR 2026 - 00Z THU 30 APR 2026
THE TRANSITION FROM A STAGNANT, HUMID LAND-AND-SEA BREEZE PATTERN
TO A MORE CLASSIC TRADE WIND REGIME THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING TO
THE EAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST. IN TERMS OF THE GUIDANCE, A MULTI-MODEL BLEND
AGAIN APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN GENERAL SPATIAL AND TIMING
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
IN THE SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY), CONTINUE TO EXPECT AN
UPTICK IN STABILITY AND DECREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION (TO BETWEEN
5-7 KFT). AS SUCH, SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED,
PREDOMINATELY ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE (PWATS INCREASING TO 1.4-1.5") IS
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER POPS, I.E. MORE
SCATTERED (VS. ISOLATED) SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. BEHIND
THE TROUGH, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DROP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS
WHILE THE TRADES RE-ESTABLISH.
HURLEY
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