798
FXHW01 KWNH 240914
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
514 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
VALID 00Z SAT 25 APR 2026 - 00Z SAT 02 MAY 2026
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A CLASSIC TRADE
WIND REGIME WILL MAINTAIN PROMINENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
THROUGH NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTH- NORTHWEST. IN TERMS OF THE GUIDANCE, A
MULTI-MODEL BLEND AGAIN APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN GENERAL SPATIAL
AND TIMING AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE.
IN THE SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY), CONTINUE TO EXPECT AN
UPTICK IN STABILITY AND DECREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION (TO BETWEEN
5-7 KFT). AS SUCH, SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED,
PREDOMINATELY ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE (PWATS INCREASING TO 1.4-1.5") IS
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER POPS, I.E. MORE
SCATTERED (VS. ISOLATED) SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. BEHIND
THE TROUGH, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DROP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS
WHILE THE TRADES RE-ESTABLISH.
KLEEBAUER
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