735
AWUS01 KWNH 250442
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-251000-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0130
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1240 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TX...FAR SOUTHEAST AR...NORTHERN
LA...CENTRAL MS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 250440Z - 251000Z
SUMMARY...LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
CELL-TRAINING CONCERNS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES/HOUR MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED
AND MAINLY URBAN CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TX AS MODEST UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE/JET ENERGY INTERACTS
WITH A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE POOLING OF RATHER
STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG IT. MEANWHILE, FARTHER EAST ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST AR AND INTO CENTRAL MS, AN ELEVATED AXIS OF CONVECTION
IS SEEING WITH COOLING CONVECTIVE TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE TOP OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED
COLD POOL.
MUCAPE VALUES ACROSS NORTHEAST TX AND THROUGH NORTHERN LA AND
SOUTHWEST MS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH MODEST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 850/925 MB LAYER OF ONLY 10 TO 20 KTS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME DEEPER LAYER ASCENT BEING FACILITATED BY
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEPER LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND PROXIMITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR SOME
CONVECTIVE SUSTENANCE AND PERHAPS FURTHER EXPANSION OF ACTIVITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST TX THROUGH NORTHERN LA
AND CENTRAL MS.
GIVEN THE LEVEL OF INSTABILITY AND WITH PWS OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES,
SOME OF THE RAINFALL RATES MAY REACH 2 INCHES/HOUR. ALIGNMENT WITH
THE DEEPER LAYER WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IN THE 850/300 MB LAYER
WILL SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME CONCERNS FOR LOCALIZED CELL-TRAINING,
AND THIS MAY YIELD SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 4+
INCHES. THIS IS ALSO BEING ADVERTISED BY SOME OF THE 00Z HREF
GUIDANCE.
EXPECT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED AND MAINLY URBAN CONCERN FOR FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A RESULT.
ORRISON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LCH...LIX...LZK...MOB...SHV...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 33529134 33508963 32928865 32198847 31528903
31269031 31369280 31829516 32229628 32869624
32949521 33049332
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