236
AWUS01 KWNH 260043
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-260641-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0132
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
842 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS, EASTERN OK, WESTERN AR
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 260041Z - 260641Z
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK EXISTS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
KS INTO EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR AS CONVECTION BRIEFLY TRAINS
AND/OR BACKBUILDS ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS INTO EASTERN OK WILL
POSE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER, BUT IS CLOSE TO
THE 850MB FRONT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS. DESPITE A MORE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER, STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPE
OVER 2000 J/KG, WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
WHILE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS ACTIVITY,
THE 23Z HRRR AND WOFS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT CONVECTION MAY
PERSIST OR GROW UPSCALE INTO EASTERN OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR, AND
RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
THIS. THE 23Z WOFS SHOWS 90TH PERCENTILE QPF EXCEEDING 3" NEAR THE
OK/AR BORDER. WITH 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE FORECAST
TO MAINTAIN OR INCREASE A BIT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER
THIS REGION, THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH
(MPD 131) MIGHT IMPACT THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS NORTHERN ACTIVITY.
IF THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH GROWS UPSCALE ENOUGH IT COULD
NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION OF THIS NORTHERN
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT CURRENT CONVECTION IS OVER
PERFORMING AND THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT, SOME FLASH FLOOD RISK EXISTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. RECENT RAINFALL HAS ALSO LOWERED FFG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED EXCEEDANCES AS CELLS MOVE SOUTHEAST OR BACKBUILD.
CHENARD
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 37389624 37029470 35619345 34709341 34329367
34429455 34859503 35549550 36709632
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