931
FXHW01 KWNH 040934
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
534 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
VALID 00Z TUE 05 MAY 2026 - 00Z TUE 12 MAY 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY TRADES SHOULD PERSIST MONDAY WITH SOME
WINDWARD/MAUKA SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEN TUESDAY, WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO LESSEN IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK REMNANT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. A SEA/LAND BREEZE PATTERN MAY SET UP WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS
FOLLOWING THOSE FEATURES. ON WEDNESDAY THE REMNANT FRONT MAY PASS
THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF THE STATE AND LEAD TO A WIND SHIFT WITH A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT, THOUGH WINDS REMAIN WEAK. MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE VERY STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. AFTER THE REMNANT FRONT FULLY DISSIPATES, WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY VEER FOR A RETURN TO MODERATE TRADES BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY.
BY THE WEEKEND, THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MAY REACH SOUTHWARD
INTO HAWAII. THIS PATTERN FAVORS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEING
DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO THE
NORTH. RECENT ECMWF RUNS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ISLANDS SUNDAY, WHILE THE GFS IS A DAY OR SO LATER. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ITS TIMING.
TATE
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