771
FXHW01 KWNH 050851
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
451 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
VALID 00Z WED 06 MAY 2026 - 00Z WED 13 MAY 2026
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LESSEN TODAY (TUESDAY) IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK REMNANT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND DISRUPTING THE
TYPICAL PACIFIC HIGHS. A SEA/LAND BREEZE PATTERN MAY SET UP WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS FOLLOWING THOSE FEATURES. ON WEDNESDAY THE REMNANT
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND LEAD TO
A WIND SHIFT WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT--THOUGH WINDS GENERALLY
REMAIN WEAK AND THE BIG ISLAND COULD MAINTAIN A SEA/LAND BREEZE
PATTERN. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE VERY STRONG WITH THIS
FEATURE, BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER THE REMNANT FRONT
FULLY DISSIPATES, WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER FOR A RETURN TO
MODERATE TRADES BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
BY THE WEEKEND, THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH COULD REACH SOUTHWARD
INTO HAWAII. THIS PATTERN FAVORS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEING
DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO THE
NORTH, ESPECIALLY OVER KAUAI AND VICINITY, FOR ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES. RECENT ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER
SOUTHEAST TOWARD MAUI EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK, WHILE THE GFS STALLS
IT NEAR THE WESTERN ISLANDS. THESE DETAILS ARE STILL RATHER
UNCERTAIN, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH THE FRONT.
TATE
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