418
AWUS01 KWNH 110515
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-110813-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0169
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
114 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO FAR WESTERN LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 110513Z - 110813Z
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 2-3
MORE HOURS (THROUGH 08Z/3A CENTRAL).
DISCUSSION...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL CONTINUES ESPECIALLY IN EAST
TEXAS. A SLOW-MOVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS MATURED,
WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS EXHIBITING SPEEDS OF AROUND 5-15 KNOTS AMID
A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
MEANWHILE, REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/SURFACE TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM
OF THE COMPLEX HAS FOSTERED AREAS OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY NEAR COLLEGE STATION EASTWARD TO NEAR
LEESVILLE, LA/FORT JOHNSON. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS AMID AN
ABUNDANTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (1.5 INCH PW VALUES) AND LINGERING
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY HAS SUPPORTED SEVERAL AREAS OF 2+
INCH/HR RAIN RATES AT TIMES. THESE RAIN RATES HAVE APPROACHED FFG
THRESHOLDS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS ALONG WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING REPORTED WEST OF COLLEGE STATION.
ONGOING TRENDS SUGGEST FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
AT LEAST ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS. THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS SUPPORTING
CONVECTION REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE (AROUND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE),
WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO REFIRE BOTH WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MCS AND ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED EAST-WEST ORIENTED BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION. FFG THRESHOLDS GET GENERALLY HIGHER WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT HOWEVER -- SUGGESTING THAT ANY CONTINUED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONCENTRATED NEAR ANY LOW SPOTS AND/OR
URBAN AREAS THAT CAN EXPERIENCE 2+ INCH/HR RAIN RATES OR HAVE
THOSE RATES EXTEND FOR A PERIOD LONGER THAN 1 HOUR. THE LATTER IS
POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED BASIS GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS.
OVER TIME, CONVECTION SHOULD APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST
AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF, REDUCING FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL THEREAFTER.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 31559469 31309277 30249237 29639336 29349544
29539691 31049679
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