742
FXHW01 KWNH 130650
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
VALID 00Z THU 14 MAY 2026 - 00Z THU 21 MAY 2026
A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHWARD, EAST OF A PROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL HIGH. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NORTH OF THE STATE BEFORE CONTINUING ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE
STATE LATE THIS WEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION MAY PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT TO POTENTIALLY WEAKEN THE TRADE WIND
INVERSION AND LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE ISLANDS
INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL DRIFT EAST; HOWEVER, THE RESULTING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MOSTLY STEADY LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL, THE PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL
WIND REGIME RELATIVELY STABLE.
PEREIRA
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