592
FXHW01 KWNH 240624
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VALID 00Z MON 25 MAY 2026 - 00Z MON 01 JUN 2026
PREVAILING TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ALONG APPROXIMATELY
35N ALLOWING FOR MAINTENANCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES WITHIN
PROXIMITY TO THE ISLAND CHAIN. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER
BETWEEN NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, WITH VALUES
GENERALLY AROUND 1-1.3" FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST.
CLIMATOLOGICAL PRECIP DISTRIBUTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH POPS RANGING FROM 30-60% OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15% ACROSS
LEEWARD AREAS.
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE LONG TERM, MAINLY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND,
DICTATE SOME CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AS DEEP TROUGH AXIS
IN THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC WILL BREAK THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
RIDGING IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR A CALMING OF THE TRADE WIND PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRIOR.
THIS WOULD LIKELY SHIFT THE CONVECTIVE SCHEME TO A DEGREE, BUT
WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED, THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILES FOR PRECIP WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREVALENT
WITH MORE PULSE VARIETY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS LIKELY IN A
LIGHTER TRADE WIND ENVIRONMENT.
KLEEBAUER
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