297
AWUS01 KWNH 041812
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-050000-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0316
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
211 PM EDT THU JUN 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN KS/SOUTHEASTERN NE INTO NORTHWESTERN
MO AND CENTRAL IA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 041810Z - 050000Z
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN KS/SOUTHEASTERN NE INTO NORTHWESTERN MO AND CENTRAL
IA THROUGH 00Z. AREAS OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN HOURLY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2+ INCHES WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW 3 TO 4+ INCH TOTALS THROUGH 00Z.
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 1745Z SHOWED A
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL KS/NE BORDER,
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. VISIBLE AND AREA RADAR IMAGERY HELPED
IDENTIFY A PAIR OF MCVS, ONE OVER CENTRAL KS NEAR HYS AND A SECOND
IN EASTERN NE NEAR JYR. A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION WAS ANALYZED FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NE AND WEST-CENTRAL IA WITH RECENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEASTERN NE. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE OVER
EAST-CENTRAL KS, ALIGNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. DAYTIME HEATING
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW HAS HELPED CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF
500 TO 1500+ J/KG (HIGHEST OVER NORTHEASTERN KS) AMONG PWS OF 1.5
TO 1.8 INCHES (VIA SPC MESOANALYSIS). ALOFT, THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET MAX CENTERED OVER MN WAS FOCUSED ACROSS THE MIDDLE
TO LOWER MO VALLEY, WHICH SHOULD AID IN OVERALL ASCENT GIVEN ONLY
A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD DEPARTURE OF THE ENTIRE JET MAX.
OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS, AS THE MAIN VORTICITY MAX AND EMBEDDED
MCVS ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND OVER
NORTHEASTERN KS/SOUTHEASTERN NE INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY EXTENDING
INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN MO AND WEST-CENTRAL IA. SW TO NE STEERING
FLOW ALIGNED WITH THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED AXIS
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF TRAINING AS A LOCAL
SOUTHERLY MAX OF 20-30 KT AT 850 MB SUPPORTS A RELATIVE MAX IN
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM EASTERN KS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NE. HOURLY
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2+ INCHES SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITHIN AREAS OF
TRAINING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS TO PICK UP 2
TO 4+ INCHES THROUGH 00Z. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS NEAR OR LESS
THAN 2 INCHES IN 3 HOURS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION OUTLOOKED
FROM NORTHEASTERN KS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NE/WESTERN IA. THEREFORE,
LOCALIZED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE ANTICIPATED
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 42599348 41899300 40499412 39349542 38619631
38079688 38109742 38729807 38989865 39549875
40529737 41599596 42459457
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