078
AWUS01 KWNH 041840
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-050035-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0317
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 PM EDT THU JUN 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED... NM INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 041837Z - 050035Z
SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHWESTERN NM INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TX. HOURLY RAINFALL OF 1 TO
2 INCHES IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...1830Z VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A NUMBER OF MESOSCALE
CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER SCALE MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN NM. WHILE
SOME REMNANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINED OVER THE REGION,
STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION WAS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITH MLCAPE
INCREASING. 18Z SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWED 500 TO 1500+ J/KG
MLCAPE FROM SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTHEASTERN NM INTO PARTS OF WEST TX
TO THE WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER.
CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE AND EXPANSION OF
THE EXISTING INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT
ARE WEAK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DISORGANIZED BUT SLOW MOVING
CELLS. ONE DIFFERENCE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS THIS WEEK IS THE
ADDED COMPONENT OF AN UPPER JET MAX LOCATED TO THE ESE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH ITS LEFT-EXIT ASCENT REGION
LOCATED OVER WESTERN TX INTO SOUTHEASTERN NM. COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED BUT SLOW MOVEMENT AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE (+1 TO +2
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR PW) MAY ALLOW FOR AREAS OF ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 01Z.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 34640320 34620266 34310214 33860195 33140207
32020295 30400289 29630362 29690448 30200530
30820593 31210659 31240746 31050861 31260885
31930889 32750856 33350752 33830609 34310449
34470360
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