469
AWUS01 KWNH 042319
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-050500-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0318
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
718 PM EDT THU JUN 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS...FAR SOUTHEAST NEB...NORTHWEST
MO...SOUTHERN TO EAST-CENTRAL IA...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 042320Z - 050500Z
SUMMARY...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST REPEATING THUNDERSTORMS RESULT IN
STREAKS OF 2-4" TOTALS AND CONTINUE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DISCUSSION...CIRA LPW SUITE DEPICTS CORE OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT
RETURNING ALONG NORTHWEST EDGE OF DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN CORE OF 1.75-2" TOTAL PWAT STRETCHING FROM
E KS ACROSS IA INTO W WI; WITH EACH LAYER IN THE 95TH-99TH
PERCENTILE WITH HIGHER PERCENTILES IN THE LOWER LAYERS (TDS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S). CURRENT COMPLEX ALONG THE AXIS IS
BEING FORCED BY AN OLD SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THAT IS
STARTING TO OPEN BACK UP IN A BROADER WAVE IN THE 925-850MB LAYER;
THOUGH MID TO UPPER LEVEL DPVA AND RIGHT ENTRANCE ASCENT PATTERNS
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A WEAK LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
THIS IS MOSTLY GIVEN THE LIMITATIONS OF THE VERTICAL HEATING AND
LACK OF GENERAL INSTABILITY, WITH VALUES ACROSS IA DIPPING BELOW
1000 J/KG WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN MODERATE CONVECTION IN
THE OVERALL DYNAMIC ASCENT; ESPECIALLY GIVEN DEEP LAYER FLOW IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH STEERING AND QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
REPEATING/TRAINING PROFILES. UPSTREAM, HOWEVER, CLEARER SKIES OVER
E KS HAS MLCAPE POOL OF 2000 J/KG ADVECTING INTO THE CONFLUENT
UPSTREAM EDGE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. AS SUCH, FAVORABLE
BACK-BUILDING IS STARTING TO BECOME MORE EVIDENT IN THE CONGESTED
LOW LEVEL CU/TCU FILED IN NE KS (BEFORE STRONGER CBS ARE SEEN
NEARER THE NEB BORDER COUNTIES ATTM. STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM
INFLUENCES (DIGGING APPROACHING TROUGH) WILL FURTHER HELP
STRENGTHEN THE LLJ TOWARD DIURNAL MAXIMUM TO FURTHER ENHANCE
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
AS SUCH, THE UPWIND EDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED
1.75-2"+/HR RATES, WITH SOME TRAINING CAPABILITY INTO NE MO AND
SOUTHERN IA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. STREAKS OF 2-4" ARE
POSSIBLE (GREATER UPSTREAM), BUT LONGER DURATION OF TRAINING DUE
TO WEAKER COLD POOL AND REDUCED HEIGHT-FALLS/INFLUENCE FROM THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWER EASTWARD PROPAGATION FURTHER
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS
LESS. AS SUCH, THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...OAX...TOP...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 42619225 42329136 41669151 40659230 39489380
38679527 38119687 38229791 38869799 39759742
40359683 41299580 42039454 42449337
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