889
AWUS01 KWNH 050124
FFGMPD
TXZ000-050700-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0320
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
923 PM EDT THU JUN 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 050125Z - 050700Z
SUMMARY...STRONG SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF QUICK 1.5"
IN HOUR OR LESS POSE HIGHLY FOCUSED/LOCALIZED INCIDENT OR TWO OF
FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV SUITE SHOWS A STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHERN SONORA/N SINALOA STATE IN MEXICO WITH BROAD DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ACROSS CHIHUAHUA AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE SPEED
MAX IS STREAKING WESTWARD WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE ASCENT, WHILE THE
RIGHT BRANCH AND LEFT EXIT OF 70KT+ STREAK IS BENDING
ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS COAHUILA INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF W
TEXAS. MOISTURE HAS REMAINED POOLED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH MID TO UPPER 50S TDS ANALYZED (THOUGH
UPPER 60S AND 70S RESIDE IN THE LOWER RGV, SOUTHEAST OF THE
PECOS); THIS AND DIRECT HEATING AND MODEST LAPSE RATES CONTINUE T
TO SUPPORT 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AS THE DAY FADES. OUTFLOW FROM
INITIAL CONVECTION IN MEXICO AS WELL AS PEAKS IN FAR W TX ALONG
THE HUECO RANGE HAS HELPED TO SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE
FOR NEWER CONVECTIVE CELLS TO SPROUT QUICKLY, WITH A SLOW
SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONG
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
QUICK CLOUD BASE MOISTURE LOADING TO SUPPORT QUICK BURSTS OF
1-1.5" IN 30 TO 60 MINUTES, KICK AN OUTFLOW TO HELP TRIGGER LATER
CONVECTION DOWN THE LINE.
A SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY CENTER IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
DIVERGENT FLOW AND IS LIKELY TO INITIATE FURTHER CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CHIHUAHUA THAT HAS POTENTIAL TO REACH THE
BIG BEND LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND MAY ALSO INTERSECT WITH SOME
OF THESE INITIAL SCATTERED CELLS PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD. GIVEN
HARD, ROCKY GROUND CONDITIONS, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EPZ...MAF...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...
LAT...LON 31910548 31850492 31460421 30730286 29930191
29410270 28960300 29070362 29580451 30360494
30780548 31180596 31580592
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