152
AWUS01 KWNH 050432
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-051030-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0321
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1230 AM EDT FRI JUN 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KANSAS...FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN IOWA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 050430Z - 051030Z
SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT
CONCERNS FOR BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST KS, FAR SOUTHEAST NE,
NORTHWEST MO, AND SOUTHERN IA. ALREADY POCKETS OF FLASH FLOODING
ARE ONGOING, AND WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH/HOUR RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED
WITH THE CONVECTION, SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6+
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST GOES-E IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-ORGANIZED AXIS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KS, NORTHWEST MO AND SOUTHERN IA. THE
CONVECTION IS IN A HIGHLY EFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR EXTREME
RAINFALL RATES AS AN EJECTING COMPACT VORT CENTER/SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH A NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED 30 TO 40+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET.
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS STRONG, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES CONTRIBUTING TO HIGHLY EFFICIENT
WARM-RAIN PHYSICAL PROCESSES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS.
INSTABILITY REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROBUST CONVECTION, WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG, WHILE 30 TO 40 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUSTAINS STORM ORGANIZATION.
OF SIGNIFICANT CONCERN ARE THE FAVORABLE CORFIDI VECTORS PROMOTING
SLOW STORM MOTIONS, BACKBUILDING, AND CELL-TRAINING OVER AREAS
WITH ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES
ARE PEAKING AT 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR. THE 00Z HREF AND REFS
SUITE STRONGLY SUPPORTS 50 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF
EXCEEDING 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH A CONSENSUS OF HIRES CAMS SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6+ INCHES.
THE COMBINATION OF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES, SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ANOMALIES, AND A SUSTAINED TRAINING STORM MODE SUPPORTS A LIKELY
FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH CONSIDERABLE RUNOFF POTENTIAL. SOME URBAN
LOCATIONS MAY LOCALLY EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS MAY INCLUDE THE
ST. JOSEPH, MO VICINITY ALONG WITH ADJACENT COMMUNITIES BACK INTO
NORTHEAST KS AND ALSO OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST MO.
ORRISON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...OAX...TOP...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...
LAT...LON 41569216 41189184 40529216 39959294 39299426
38989520 38919615 39159666 39679668 40229610
40819493 41359357
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