057
AWUS01 KWNH 051225
FFGMPD
TXZ000-051700-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0323
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
824 AM EDT FRI JUN 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 051223Z - 051700Z
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED NARROW AXES OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TX MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 4-5 HOURS. HOURLY RAINFALL
LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...12Z REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAIN
DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, MOVING
FROM SSE TO NNW. LOW LEVEL FLOW OF ABOUT 10 TO 20 KT (SLIGHTLY
STRONGER OVER THE UPPER TX COAST INTO THE PINEY WOODS REGION) WAS
ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE COAST, RESULTING IN THE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 12Z SHOWED THE
REFLECTION OF A REMNANT SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, REPRESENTED BY
LOWER DEWPOINTS TO ITS NORTH AND EAST, EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN TX. MLCAPE WAS ALSO REFLECTIVE OF
THIS BOUNDARY WITH A GRADIENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z SPC MESOANALYSIS
WITH 500 TO 1500 J/KG LOCATED ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN, WITH LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY TO ITS NORTH. NEAR THIS GRADIENT WAS WEAKLY CONVERGENT
FLOW IN THE 0-2 KM AGL LAYER, PARTIALLY ALIGNED WITH THE MEAN
STEERING FLOW FROM THE SSE.
DUE TO THE SIMILAR ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL AND STEERING FLOW,
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN 10-15 KT STEERING FLOW,
SOME TRAINING AND BRIEF BACKBUILDING OF CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOUTHEASTERN TX WAS ALSO BENEATH THE
RIDGE AXIS OF A BROADER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF, AIDING IN WEAK
UPPER DIFFLUENCE. WITH GPS PWS OF 2.0 TO 2.1 INCHES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TX, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EFFICIENT
RAINFALL WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR
(LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE), AND 2 TO 4+ INCH STORM TOTALS.
WHILE THE COVERAGE OF THESE HIGHER RATES REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN
AND COULD END UP HIGHLY LOCALIZED, PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TX
HAVE PICKED UP 3 TO 6+ INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 2-3 DAYS,
RESULTING IN POCKETS OF HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE AND REDUCED
INFILTRATION CAPACITY. THEREFORE, IN ADDITION TO URBAN OVERLAP,
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OF 2 TO 4+ INCHES FALLING ATOP ANY
HYRDOLOGICALLY SENSITIVE LOCATIONS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 4-5 HOURS.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...
LAT...LON 31459581 31229519 30809482 30519443 30209395
29539397 28609538 27929674 29139734 30869710
31369652
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