384
AWUS01 KWNH 051704
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-052130-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0324
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
103 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN OK
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 051700Z - 052130Z
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR EASTERN TX INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN OK. NARROW
AXES OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SUPPORT 1 TO 2
IN/HR RAINFALL BUT ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HOURLY
RAINFALL LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.
DISCUSSION...1640Z RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN TX WITH SOME
RECENT EXPANSION NORTHWARD TOWARD THE I-20 CORRIDOR BETWEEN FTW
AND TYR. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN TX WERE HELPING WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER SURFACE HEATING COMPARED TO THE THICKER CLOUD
COVER OVER CENTRAL TX AT THE MOMENT. THE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN TX
REMAINED VERY MOIST WITH PWS OF 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES AND UNSTABLE
WITH 500 TO 1500+ J/KG MLCAPE (VIA 16Z SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA). LOW
LEVEL DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE REMAINED BETTER FOCUSED
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TX WHERE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR
THE LOWER SABINE RIVER MET WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE WEST
OVER EAST-CENTRAL TX.
WHILE CONFLUENT AXES WERE WEAK AND SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT, THERE
SHOULD REMAIN A BETTER FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL FORCING OVER EASTERN
TX, ALIGNED WITH THE MEAN STEERING FLOW, ALLOWING FOR TRAINING AND
BRIEF BACKBUILDING OF CELLS. THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS IS
FORECAST BY THE RAP TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOSE
SOME DEFINITION AND BECOME OFFSET IN ORIENTATION FROM THE MEAN
STEERING FLOW. DESPITE THE LESS FAVORABLE SETUP INTO NORTHEASTERN
TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THIS AREA WILL MAINTAIN A LIMITED THREAT
FOR TRAINING AND BRIEF BACKBUILDING. DUE TO THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT, AREAS OF TRAINING WILL CARRY THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1 TO
2+ IN/HR RAINFALL RATES ALONG WITH A FEW TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
(LOCALLY HIGHER). A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 4-5 HOURS.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...OUN...SHV...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 34599546 33419511 32329464 30299374 29509497
29119590 29509662 31079726 32839746 34389654
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